Published: Wed, September 13, 2017
World Media | By June Phelps

Hurricane Jose continues to meander in the Atlantic

Hurricane Jose continues to meander in the Atlantic

It's now about 430 miles NNE of Grand Turk Island. As it exited on Saturday evening, maximum wind speeds were registered at 145 miles per hour, along with a risky storm surge.

Jose was the third major hurricane in a row, behind Harvey and Irma.

Hurricane Jose moved away from the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, giving relief to the Caribbean archipelago battered by Hurricane Irma. The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday called it "a rather amorphous blob", situated in the Atlantic on Tuesday about 650 miles north of Puerto Rico, and its forecast path is somewhere between weird and counterintuitive.

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The National Hurricane Center recognizes this uncertainty in its Tuesday morning forecasts for Jose, saying "after (three days), the confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges significantly". Whether it impacts our forecast is still uncertain.

However, many forecasters anticipate that later this week Jose will move west-northwest toward the Bahamas, which is now in the five-day cone of uncertainty, and potentially, South Florida.

Most of the long-term models beyond September 18 have the storm heading out to sea instead of heading west. Of 20 runs of the GFS model ensemble forecast Monday morning, 25% resulted in an eventual landfall in the US, and another 25% in Canada. Irma's initial forecasts kept the storm in the Atlantic.

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For the European weather model, a recurvature out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions.

Latest forecast models are struggling to track the hurricane's exact path, but the tail-end of the storm could bring some unstable conditions to the United Kingdom in about 10 days time. Potential tracks vary wildly, from landfalls in the south up to the Canadian maritimes, while others take Jose out to sea permanently.

After Monday night, the National Weather Service says Jose may do something unusual: it could hit the brakes and start a series of loops.

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"Swells generated by Jose will affect portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days", the National Hurricane Centre said.

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